POK and China

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Imagine it's an India versus Pakistan final world cup cricket match going on, and you are in the stadium watching the game. As you look around, you notice Indian and Pakistani spectators, and wait, some Chinese spectators as well, and then someone tells you if Pakistan wins this match, the trophy is going to China. This strikes a resemblance to the real-world situation, where the trophy symbolizes resources and geopolitical advantage that comes with Pakistan-occupied Kashmir(POK), the game symbolizes the conflict over Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and I’m the one who tells you that if Pakistan wins, the trophy goes to China.

By this time you must have figured out that, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is far more valuable to China than Pakistan itself. Therefore, when discussing India's claim to regain that region of Kashmir, it's not just a one-on-one situation but rather a one-versus-two scenario.

source: Jagran Josh

The geopolitical advantages

Along with being stunning from an aesthetic standpoint and presenting major tourism potential, the area is characterized by lower Himalayan hills, which make it easier for Pakistani militants and terrorists to infiltrate Indian territory from the West while making it much more difficult from an Indian perspective. On one side, hills and valleys allow terrorists to conceal themselves, dodge security personnel, and sneak into India; on the other, rough terrain and unfavorable weather conditions make it difficult to monitor and hunt for these intruders. POK's status as an Indian territory would give India a significant geostrategic edge as the region opens up in the plain to the west Pakistani Punjab. 

In this strategic geopolitical endeavor, it would be a major strategic success for India and a diplomatic disaster for China if POK came under Indian control. The Wakhan corridor in Afghanistan is a significant entryway for India to reach Afghanistan and Central Asian republics, which are resource-rich, provide India with a significant market for its goods, and serve as a source of energy and an essential partner in India's wider neighborhood. India can also break the links between the Pakistani Taliban, China, and Pakistan. POK hence plays a crucial role for India.

Source: Drishti IAS

The Chinese angle

India will have to make a claim to China, not Pakistan when it comes to POK. India currently holds only 74,292 sq km of the 2,22,236 sq km of J&K that Maharaja Hari Singh acquired, while Pakistan and China hold 1,10,489 sq km and 37,555 sq km, respectively. India must thus wage a war that it can win against both Pakistan and China if POK is to be freed. Beijing won't permit this to happen, and not just because it wants to enlarge its borders.

But will there be an expense for this assistance, or is it simply for a friend who needs it? China is Pakistan's biggest creditor and also holds over 30% of its foreign debt. Pakistan's condition was deteriorating as only three weeks' worth of foreign exchange reserves were left by February 2023.

The main reason is CEPEC. Under CPEC China has made a huge investment in Pakistan. Where Pakistan needed loans to keep its economy floating, China used it as a geopolitical advantage to make a shortcut to central and west Asia. 

CPEC is basically a 3000 km long road that connects China's northwest Xinjiang region and Gwadar port in western Balochistan in Pakistan, which goes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and that's why China is closely spectating on POK. More than $60 billion of investment and $10 billion of loans. China has no choice but to keep the Pakistani army equipped, to protect its long-term investments in Pakistan by keeping POK open as a gateway to Gwadar port. 

Indian angle

If India invades Pakistan and resoundingly wins the war, POK can still be included. But it might have unknown, disastrous repercussions. Another possibility is that India actively supports rebel groups in POK, Gilgit-Baltistan, Balochistan, and Sindh in their efforts to destabilize Pakistan and seize control of POK. However, this will be confronted with worldwide criticism and harsh consequences.

So it is a long Strategic road for India to annex POK, and whatever India does, it will have to face both Pakistan and China and hence India will require huge international support. 

 


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